Agriculture Adapts to Climate Change

Climate change creates challenges for New York farmers—more frequent and intense heat waves, new pests, heavy rainfall and flooding, changes in frost dates—and opportunities: longer growing seasons and the ability to grow different crops.

Water

NOW: Rainfall has increased since the mid-20th century, and more frequent heavy rainfalls are leading to flooding.

FUTURE: By the end of the 21st century, droughts are projected to be more frequent, as higher temperatures will lead to more evaporation that dries out the soil, outcompeting increased rainfall.

Crops

NOW: Growing seasons in the Northeast U.S. have increased by more than 10 days compared with the first half of the 20th century.

FUTURE: Farmers need to plan for new varieties of fruits and vegetables that can tolerate future climate conditions.

Dairies

NOW: Dairy cows produce less milk during extreme heat.

FUTURE: Dairy farmers will need to use techniques to keep cows cool, including using sprinklers, fans, and barns designed for cooling airflow.

Orchards

NOW: Apple trees and grape vines are blooming earlier in the spring than they did in the 1960s, making them more vulnerable to late spring frosts.

FUTURE: Growers will need to use management practices to adapt to changing bloom and frost dates.

Apples

McIntosh and Empire apples might become less common as farmers replace them with apples that tolerate heat better.

Apple trees need bees to pollinate them to produce fruit.  New York springs are arriving earlier than they used to, and entomologists wonder if bees will continue to wake up soon enough at the end of winter to pollinate the spring blossoms. Early springs followed by hard frosts are also tough on bees, as well as on the apple buds and blossoms.

Maple Syrup

Maple syrup, beloved by many of us on our pancakes, comes from extracting sap from sugar maple trees and then boiling it. Tapping sugar maples does not damage the trees when done properly, so sugar maple trees can produce sap for boiling for many decades. But a changing climate is likely to bring changes to what is an almost $30 million dollar industry in New York State.

Sap flows through sugar maple trees when the weather goes through a freeze-thaw cycle with very cold nights and daytime temperatures above freezing. Traditionally, maple sugaring season in New York State has started in late winter to early spring, but as New York winters are warming this season is projected to shift earlier—by 15 to 30 days by the end of the 21st century.

Climate change may also affect the health of sugar maple trees. Research into this is ongoing, but studies have shown that reduced snowpack—which is projected with warmer winters—can lead to root damage and reduce the growth of tree shoots.

The ideal habitat for sugar maples is expected to shift northward as the climate warms, although recent research suggests that the northern limit of where the trees can thrive may be constrained by soil chemistry and fungi and microorganisms found in northern soils.

Grapes and Wine

Viniculture is a big industry in New York State, and in the Finger Lakes in particular. With a changing climate, grape growers will enjoy longer growing seasons, and you might find wines made from different varieties of grapes that do better in warmer winters.  

But frost injuries can take their toll on grapes, and growers will need to adapt to changing frost dates.